Seanad Election Results - Voting Pacts Hold Up

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:19

The results for the Culture and Education panel have been completed. Fianna Fáil have retained their 3 seats in this panel due to Sinn Féin transfers. Fine Gael lost one seat to Labour's Alex White. The Senators election on this panel were Alex White (Lab), Liam Twomey (FG), Cecilia Keaveney (FF), Labhras Ó Murchú (FF) and Ann Ormonde (FF).

FG's Liam Swomey was 3 votes away from the final FF candidate. This victory for the Government was largely due to Sinn Féin transfering from Alex White to Fianna Fáil candidates. Approximately one-quarter of White's surplus went to Fianna Fáil. This was enough to swing the last seat to the Government.

If this SF transfer continues the Government will win a majority in the Seanad. Sinn Féin give FF majority in face of a humiliating defeat.

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:38

Sinn Féin had its first Senator election last night on the Agriculture panel. Pearse Doherty topped the poll with 103 first preferences.

However the most interesting aspect of Sinn Féin's vote was the transfers went to Fianna Fáil by the margin of 77%. Of Doherty's surplus of 13.66 votes, 10.52 went to FF. The other votes went to opposition parties as Labour 'lent' votes to SF. This is further evidence of Sinn Fein backing the Government in these Seanad elections. Due to this high transfer from SF Councillors and TDs the Government are set to retain a majority in the Seanad. In the Seanad elections all transfers are considered unlike the Dáil election when distributing surpluses. This means SF's decision to support Fianna Fáil will deliver marginal seats for the Government.

If there was a Government minority the Government would be unable to pass legislation easily and would be frustrated. There was also the prospect of the Seanad being able to trigger a referendum on unpopular important legislation.

by Justin Moran Tue Jul 24, 2007 12:56

Those dastardly Shinners eh?

The party has given guidance to representatives on how to vote with their first preference in a couple of cases but what representatives do with their second preference is up to them. Personally, had I a vote, I'd happily transfer to Fianna Fáil candidates like Labhrás Ó Murchú for his work on the Irish language, and to Mary White for her support for the Colombia 3 and nationalist residents opposing Orange marches. Others might do so on geographic grounds.

Nevertheless, I look forward with deep amusement to this appearing in the Big Leftie Book of Grudges against Sinn Féin.

by SF watch Tue Jul 24, 2007 13:24

The fact is that by transfering to Fianna Fáil candidates the SF Councillors and TDs are giving the Government a majority. If Sinn Féin were serious about being an opposition party there would have been a strict party whip on SF to stop them transfering to FFers over opposition candidates. I don't buy this "they all had a free vote past 2nd preference". Who cares what Mary White and Labhras Ó Murchú do in their spare time! Their day job is backing up the Government!

This is all a part of Sinn Féin's general sell-out. Their voters in 2004 local elections clearly voted against the Government. But SF Councillors are backing up the Government and giving them a Majority in the Senate. Remember if SF did not transfer this way then the Government would be in a minority. The Government majority in the Seanad will be due to the sell-out of Sinn Féin and the Greens. I'm looking forward to the next Local election when I'll hammer SF on my doorstep for their sell-out.

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 13:32

It has been reported in today's Irish Times that according to "one Labour source said Sinn Féin councillors had voted with "military precision"."

So there was no free vote from Sinn Féin. My sources at the count says there was no free vote. Justin Moran is wrong. The 23% of Doherty surplus were Labour Councillors and TDs voting down the ticket against the Government candidates. The SF Councillors and TDs voted 100% for FF in their lower preferences.

by Watcher Tue Jul 24, 2007 14:31

Once again we have Maurice and his "sources". May I suggest Maurice that you seek a job writing in the Sunday World or Independent who have the same "sources". There was only instruction from the party for the first preference vote's. There was no instruction otherwise and you are lying when you say otherwise. The SF votes all went as planned to the agreed candidate for first preference hence the "military precision" and your "100% for FF in their lower preferences" is complete horseshit. My "sources" at the count says your a liar of the highest degree.

And lets get this clear no Shinner in their right mind would vote for Fine Gael so lets not pretend that it would be a good thing to vote for the blueshirts. It would be about as good for people as listening to Maurice Ross and his "sources".

Interestingly how much "military precision" did Labour have when voting for Pearse Doherty? How many Labour voted Fianna Fail? or Mr. Ross are you really that daft that you think no Labour person voted for a Fianna Fail candidate? You really live in a sheltered world if you think that.

by Paul Reddy Tue Jul 24, 2007 15:08

Watcher, just go an look at the results and the breakdown of the transfers. It is as clear as day that SF councillors and TDs did indeed vote 'with military precision' for Fianna Fáil candidates. I can't see how you are denying this! It's like denying that Tuesday comes after Monday!

Instead of denying the facts why don't you try to justify SF's support for this government?

The Greens should also not be let off the hook, they are also supporting FF with 'military precision'. Their own candidate got no votes! Seems that the ranks of the Greens are extremely happy about the coalition deal, even after, Rossport, tara, Shannon, EU Treaty, deportations etc.

by Watcher Tue Jul 24, 2007 15:22

Where are your facts? You are talking horseshit. You have no proof and no "sources" the same as Maurice Ross and his idiotic "a vote for Fine Gael is progressive as they are oppostion" bullshit. How many Labour councillors/TD's voted for FF candidates? oh no wait according to you sheltered gombeen's none of them, what sheltered special people you are. You are wrong and are maintaing a lie that there was "miltary precision" voting on second preferences. It is an absolute lie with nothing but Maurice Ross and his "sources" to back it up. And for you special sheltered people the reason I put quotation marks around Maurice's "sources" is because they don't exist.

Screw the Seanad it should be abolished and screw the gombeens who think that a vote for the right wing Fine Gael is somehow progressive. You people need to have a chat to your "sources" and discuss how progressive Fine Gael and Labour for that matter really are.

by Reddy Tue Jul 24, 2007 15:39

I don't think anyone is saying that voting for FG is progressive, but either is voting for FF!

SF councillors had the choice not to transfer and by doing this they would have caused major problems for the government in the Senate. If Sf were an opposition party they would not give one iota of support to the government or to their tweedle dee FG.

Here are the facts. It's all to see on www.seanadcount.ie

Doherty's surplus

Fine Gael - 1,884 (13.8%)

Fianna Fáil - 11,147 (81.6%)

Independent - 628 (4.6%)

Non Transferable - 0

Remember these are SF councillors and TDs, they are not ordinary punters on the street. It is clear that SF leaders support FF.

by Justin Moran Tue Jul 24, 2007 15:48

Good grief, quoting the 'military precision' reference in today's Irish Times. An unnamed source used only so that Collins could take a pop about the IRA and Maurice Ross believes it with the same fervour of some poor sod in the desert reading tablets of stone.

There was no whip on Sinn Féin reps to vote for anyone in their preferences. Considering there were far more FF candidates than Labour and some reps vote on geographic grounds, some of those candidates have been supportive of Sinn Féin campaigns and positions in the past and that few Sinn Féin people would vote Fine Gael, I'd be staggered if there wasn't overwhelming transfers from SF to FF.

Sometimes, boys and girls, it's not a conspiracy, it's simply a consequence of natural and explicable political choices. If people had been given preference instructions, not only would we have achieved 100% to FF but the transfers would have moved in neater splits favouring more candidates rather than the random transfers to FF that took place.

Insert conspiracy theory here:

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 16:13

It's not a conspiracy theory. The figures add up to show that the vast majority of Sinn Féin councillors and TDs voted for Fianna Fáil after voting for the Labour candidate(s). This is not a surprise to me. However it will be a surprise to Sinn Féin voters that voted for them in 2004 and 2007 thinking they were opposed to the Government. I do think that this should be raised and discussed as it exposes the true politics of Sinn Féin. i.e. pro-conservative, pro-big business & pro-property developer. Stop trying to dress it up as "geographical" or "free vote". Even with a free vote you should not be betraying your voters and giving the Government and majority. What the hell has geography got to do with it? Surely a pro-Government Senator from anywhere will vote pro-Government all the time!

Let's not mistake it: Sinn Féin and the Green Party are giving Fianna Fáil a majority in the Seanad.

by Watcher Tue Jul 24, 2007 16:24

It gets even worse from Mr. Ross. "pro-conservative, pro-big business & pro-property developer" and you think Fine Gael aren't any of these what planet are you on? You are a typical blueshirt supporter: full of shit and with their heads buried in the sand. Sinn Féin voters don't like the blueshirts, why do you think they would want them to vote for them. Only 55% of Labour transfers went to Fine Gael, those darn Labour people voting for a right wing party, now who do I mean FF or FG?
And to suggest that SF supports any of your above quotation is just complete and utter horseshit of the highest order and is pathetic trolling.

Abolish the Seanad, get Labour and Sinn Féin building stronger links together so that next election blueshirt supporters like Maurice Ross will be on their own.

by Justin Moran Tue Jul 24, 2007 16:27

It's not a surprise to me either Maurice.

I am not denying that Sinn Féin representatives have transferred heavily to Fianna Fáil. It would be extremely surprising if this was not the case.

You claim that Sinn Féin representatives were instructed to give transfers to FF candidates, which suggests a conspiracy to do so. Your basis for this is, quite hilariously, a quote from an unnamed Labour source in an article written by an anti-republican journalist. You have no other evidence. Thus, you are suggesting the existence of a 'conspiracy' without evidence of understanding.

Considering the other options are Fine Gael or the occasional Labour candidate, it's hardly a surprise that Sinn Féin people would vote for Senators who might be local representatives to them, might have a good track record on issues they are interested in.

You prefer pro-business conspiracies. *shrug* at least the internet gives you a place to post about it.

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 16:46

I'm now a Blueshirt! Far from it! I just don't like the Government or any of the political establishment. If I had a Senate vote I'd not vote at all. If my party had done a deal i'd follow it through and then Not transfer.

Justin is spinning to deflect from the fact that SF councillors and TDs transfered to Fianna Fáil by large margins. My information comes from www.seanadcount.ie With some basic maths you can work out that 81% of transfers from Doherty went to FF. When you take away the number of Labour Cllrs voting next for FF (figure available by cross tally with other counts), you can work out that Sinn Féin en bloc voted down the ticket SF1, LP2, FF3,4,5 and so on. I predict they did this in the high 90s%.

Again, Justin stop spinning this latest sell-out. Why not argue for your real politics and argue why you are giving the Government a majority in the Senate.

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 16:54

I've heard from a source at the RCSI that Ronan Mullen, a Fianna Fáil member running as a 'Family Solidarity' candidate, is doing very well and may get elected. If Mullen pulls through then Fianna Fáil's majority will be more easily attained. (SF will probably also breath a sigh of relief!)

by Amused Tue Jul 24, 2007 17:13

He's been confidently predicting a SF sell-out for weeks now. He has to come up with some explanation to "prove" it.

Sure we'd all do the same thing in Maurice's shoes.

by Watcher Tue Jul 24, 2007 17:35

Your "sources" are now seanadcount.ie some insider you are. And your other source about Mullen is politics.ie you are a top notch investigator. You are a troll nothing more. Fine Gael are not progressive in any way. To vote for them because they are opposition is idiotic.

Maurice you have no sources bar other websites despite your claims, your attempt to pass Fine Gael off as progressive is pathetic. Pretty much everything you have said about SF has turned out to be horseshit.
Your attempt at analysis of the voting figures and transfers are completely non scientific and exclude any intelligence "I predict they did this in the high 90s%" you are so bad at predictions that you should work in the Irish psychic hotline, and predicitons are all that they are.

I have an idea. Lets all vote for the Christian Solidarity Party because they are not in government. Who's with me?

by SFwatch Tue Jul 24, 2007 19:11

"Pretty much everything you have said about SF has turned out to be horseshit."

Look at the figures, 81% of those that voted for Pierce Doherty gave their next highest preference to a Fianna Fáil candidate. THIS IS A FACT!

Is this not evidence of SF backing up FF in these elections? How do you explain this then?

by Maurice Ross Tue Jul 24, 2007 21:16

SF are spinning like crazy to justify their sell-out of their voters. I am not a supporter of Fine Gael. Personally I would never ever give them a transfer and I would not to FF either by the way. FG are a rotten little party that should be confined to the obscurity they deserve.

My argument is all about SF backing Fianna Fáil candidates and giving them a majority in the Seanad. If SF did not transfer beyond their deal with Labour, the Government would be up shit's creak without a padel. SF decided to vote down the ticket giving FF votes. That is the nub of the issue.

My sources are then attacked. I am in communication with people at the counts at RCSI and Leinster House. Just because I've also looked at Irish Times and politics.ie does not make my sources defunct.

Then basic Mathematical fact is attacked. Sinn Féin councillors and TDs have voted en bloc for Fianna Fáil candidates after backing SF/Labour. Lets take the Doherty vote as an example. Doherty's votes came from the SF voters and then a designated number of Labour voters and then I'm sure he got a handful of independent cllrs. About 2/3rds of his vote were SFers. When we look at Labour transfer patterns it accounts for the transfers to FG &Ind. As Labour also had leakage to FF then we can say that not all the FF transfers were SF. So if you look at the figures you will see that SFers voted down the ticket for FF en bloc and Labour's transfers were split 60-40 to FG.

Unlike a Dáil election there are only 1000 votes. It's obvious who each party voted for. You can even see how one of the smallest parties voted for by looking at spoilt votes. There were 4 spoilt votes for not giving a first prefernce. Surprise, Surprise the socialist Party have 4 cllrs.

SF - the figures speak for themselves. Stop your spinning. Face up to another sell-out.

by iosaf Tue Jul 24, 2007 21:31

I was reminded of it today upon reading an essay by a Cambridge fellow and professor of developmental psychopathology on "honesty"..., If your little doggie scratches at the door the way it does when it wants to go out for walkies (we presume for creativity's sake you're not a DCC tenant) & you open the door, perhaps even taking your coat off the hook by the way - and then the little mutt jumps on your nice warm seat - what has happened?
there are 2 interpretations.
one is that the dog is a sly crafty creature more fox than loyal friend who has tricked you and sold you out and sent you up the river of slime. The other is it simply learnt you with your coat on at the door means a warm seat by the telly when it doesn't need a shite.
I don't want to distract you with an essay on "honesty" from an odd journal which deals with each and every "character trait" which some think "human". Especially not when its true focus is consideration of autism. But it's such a good little parable the way he tells it - you will probably enjoy his version more than mine :- http://www.incharacter.org/article.php?article=101

by Justin Moran Tue Jul 24, 2007 23:32

Maurice, calm down. Take a deep breath, wander away and make a cup of tea and them come back here.

Done?

Sound.

"I'm now a Blueshirt! Far from it!"

I never accused you of being a Fine Gael supporter. I have no knowledge of, and a complete and total lack of interest in, what your politics are. You could be old-skool Maoist for all I care.

You are stating that SF representatives are transferring to FF as if it was some sort of revelation. While waiting for Prime Time to get back to you on that, I'm not denying that our people are transferring heavily to FF. They as individuals exercised their choice to do so. I've been trying, with decreasing levels of politeness, to explain the political reasons for this.

You, have gone for a conspiracy theory of SF leadership instructing their members to vote for FF when you have no evidence and the evidence you are citing, the transfer patterns, doesn't show it. For if there was a pact the transfers would be cohesive and they would be selective instead of all over the shop, and there wouldn't have been the levels of leakage we see.

We agree on what's happening. I believe the explanation is based on rational political analysis. You believe it is based on conspiracy theories and wild assumptions. Have fun with that.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 08:18

The Trinity College results are showing Shane Ross, David Norris and Ivana Bacik (Labour) will be elected. In the NUI it's more close. I predict Joe O'Toole will win with Rónan Mullen, Fergal Quinn and Brendan Ryan going for last 2 seats.

I've never said it was a conspiracy theory about SF. They are politically closer to the Fianna Fail party than being a left-wing party. Ó Caoilain's remarks on the election of Ahern in the Dáil last month was purely for public consumption. My point is that it is a betrayal of your voters. The fact that SF members like Justin can justify the transfers shows how right wing SF are. SF and Greens, but mainly SF, have handed Fianna Fáil their majority in the face of iminant defeat. I'm accused of conspicacy theories! But when I gave info first I was told it was "horse-shit" and that SF would not do that, I then backed it up with facts and Justin Moran, Killian Forde et al have now accpeted that SF did give the Government a Seanad majority.

I hope this is used against SF candidates in 2009 locals.

by Watcher Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:36

Maurice once again.

First of all you claimed there was a deal between SF and FF.
There is not and this is a lie

Then after the deal with Labour you say that SF were transfering with "military precision" as directed by the leadership down the line for FF
This is also false as the transfers are quite clearly not going down the line and there was no direction from SF leadership

You then started talking about your "sources"
This was another lie as your "sources" were in fact seanadcount.ie and politics.ie

You keep on pretending that a vote for FG is progressive as they are in opposition which is a truely idiotic position from someone who has the political intelligence of newt.

You then say SF should be punished in the locals for not transfering to FG. You would find that SF voters would no more want to transfer to FG than they would the PD's.

As for SF being closer to FF than a left wing party. Interesting theory from someone who wants the blueshirts to be elected. FF are closer to being a left wing party than FG, but only just. While I have no doubt that you wouldn't know what is left wing if it came up and spat on your blueshirt the only analysis you have is that FG are opposition therfore they are good. Again it is an idiotic, right wing argument that has no left wing analysis or left wing ideology to it. We should just support every right wing and far right party on the basis that they are opposition.

As for the Seanad it should be abolished. It is a waste of money and it is undemocratic. If the Seanad had universal sufferage you would find that FF would have an overwhelming majority. The problem, for the left is overcoming that hurdle and engaging with the communtiy in a much more meaningful way. The problem for you is that you are pathetically attempting to score points against SF on the basis that they didn't vote for FG. Nobody on this website wants the blueshirts in power in any form, and the public in general couldn't give a shit about the seanad.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:18

First of all you claimed there was a deal between SF and FF.
There is not and this is a lie

I never claimed this. I said that SF were going to vote for FF candidate with first preferences if the Labour deal was not done. In fact I made the point that there was not even a deal or negotiations unlike the Green sell-out!

Then after the deal with Labour you say that SF were transfering with "military precision" as directed by the leadership down the line for FF
This is also false as the transfers are quite clearly not going down the line and there was no direction from SF leadership

That was a quote from a Labour member at the count. Obviously SF did not vote with military precision as the FF candidates they transfered were varied. Callanan and Ó Murchu gained most, but all other FF candidates got votes too from SF. One thing that is 'precision' about the SF transfer is that I would say all voted for FF after voting according to Labour deal. This is a fact, the figures don't lie.

You then started talking about your "sources"
This was another lie as your "sources" were in fact seanadcount.ie and politics.ie

I am in contact with people at the counts. So what if I quoted from the official website when citing the detailed count figures. I did this to correct a minor error in tally about Doherty transfers. If you noticed I said it was 77% to FF, but upon consulting the official figures it was 81%.

You keep on pretending that a vote for FG is progressive as they are in opposition which is a truely idiotic position from someone who has the political intelligence of newt.

Read what I wrote. I never once said Fine Gael were progressive. They are not. They are a rotten party that I would personally never give them a transfer vote. As I said before, and I hope I won't have to repeat, if I'd a vote in Senate elections I'd vote according to my party or party deal and then leave no transfers to FF and FG. If SF did this then FF would be up shit creek without a padel.

You then say SF should be punished in the locals for not transfering to FG. You would find that SF voters would no more want to transfer to FG than they would the PD's.

Read what I said above. I don't think Sinn Féin voters would be happy to think of their Councillors and TDs voting for the Government. As I said above SF could have voted according to their deal with Labour and then not transfer. That is not endorsing FF or FG, while at same time it's denying the Government a majority. This was principled thing to do. But no, Sinn Féin backed up the Government. No accident in my opinion, that's where SF politics are at.

As for SF being closer to FF than a left wing party. Interesting theory from someone who wants the blueshirts to be elected. FF are closer to being a left wing party than FG, but only just. While I have no doubt that you wouldn't know what is left wing if it came up and spat on your blueshirt the only analysis you have is that FG are opposition therfore they are good. Again it is an idiotic, right wing argument that has no left wing analysis or left wing ideology to it. We should just support every right wing and far right party on the basis that they are opposition.

Again, read what I said above about FG. Fianna Fáil are in NO WAY a left-wing party. They are totally in the hands of the property developers (as is your local councillors in Monaghan by the way), they are privatising hospitals and other public services, they are taking austic kids to court to deny them education, they are giving massive tax breaks to big business while regular working people pay massive hikes is gas, bin charges, electricity, and otehr public utilities. FF are not a socialist party. Ahern is not a socialist. What next? Your pal Paisley is a socialist revolutionary?

As for the Seanad it should be abolished. It is a waste of money and it is undemocratic. If the Seanad had universal sufferage you would find that FF would have an overwhelming majority.

I also think it should be abolished. If there was a universal franchise what makes you think FF would have a majority? FF got 40% in recent election. It's well known that in second chamber elections the Government always drop votes. This is all a part of the post-election analysis that struggle and left-wing politics is over and we all must do deals with FF. I dispair at this pathetic politics.

The problem, for the left is overcoming that hurdle and engaging with the communtiy in a much more meaningful way. The problem for you is that you are pathetically attempting to score points against SF on the basis that they didn't vote for FG. Nobody on this website wants the blueshirts in power in any form, and the public in general couldn't give a shit about the seanad

Again, more slurs about FG. Read above. Yes, most people don't give a shit about the Seanad. But they do care about their Councillors and TDs helping out the Government in Parliament. If there was not a Government majority then there would be more attention on it. The Government would face delays in legislation and even referendums on certain laws. This opportunity was thrown away by SF, Greens and Indepdendent Cllrs who voted FF. People may not give a shit about the Seanad, but they do care about self styled opposition parties backing the Government and throwing away a golden opportunity to shaft the Government. And by the way, Sinn Féin is not left-wing if it backs up Fianna Fáil at ever opportunity it gets.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:39

The results for the Labour Panel were completed last night.

Those elected were Jerry Buttimer (FG), Donie Cassidy (FF), Maurice Cummins (FG), Geraldine Feeney (FF), Francis Fitzgerald (FG), John Hanafin (FF), Fidelma Healy-Eames (FG), Terry Leyden (FF), Michael McCarthy (Lab), Phil Prendergast (Lab) and Ned O'Sullivan (FF). That's FF 5 (down 1), FG 4, Labour 2 (up 1).

Most notable in this panel is the defeat of FF Senator Don Lydon who was most known for being the Leader of the Dublin County Council during the 1980s during the era when corrupt payments were made. Lydon was also known for assaulting Trevor Sargent when Sargent asked fellow councillors if they have also received payments prior to a re-zoning vote. Michael McCarthy secured a nomination against the wishes of the Labour Party leadership. Eric Byrne has suffered yet another election defeat. Out of the twelve times Eric Byrne has run for the Oireachtas he has lost ten times. The Labour Councillors clearly backed McCarthy. Phil Prendergast was a former member of the left-wing Tipperary Workers and Unemployed Group, however she left them to join the Labour Party recently. Prendergast as a Senator will be expected to win a seat in Tipp South, but she failed to do well against Seamus Healy in May. another return to the Seanad is Donie Cassidy who lost his Dáil seat in May but was re-appointed Leader of the Seanad for the final weeks of the last Seanad filling Mary O'Rourkes shoes.

Of interest to the left was the performance of Mick O'Reilly of the ATGWU. O'Reilly was a prominant opponent of the partnership deals. O'Reilly achieved 29 votes. Paudge Connolly, formerly a Health independent TD, won 19 votes.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:02

Agriculture panel saw 11 men elected: Pearse Doherty (SF), Alan Kelly (Lab), Paul Bradford (FG), Paddy Bourke (FG), Peter Callanan (FF), John Carty (FF), Pat Moylan (FF), Francis O'Brien (FF), J. P. Phelan (FG), Eugene Regan (FG) and Jim Walsh (FF). That is a FF drop of 1 seat, lost to Sinn Fein.

In Trinity College Shane Ross and David Norris were elected last night. Ross won 5,379 votes with Norris winning 5,240 votes. Ivana Bacik (Lab) was in third palce with 2,740. This should see her elected as Maurice Gueret is 1,500 votes behind her.

In the NUI count at the Royal College of Surgeons the surprise was the performance of Ronan Mullen. O'Toole will top the poll. My source at the count says that Mullen is picking up transfers all over the place and will get elected. The only discussion point at the count is which sitting Senator will loose. Despite being behind Quinn on the first count it's possible that Brendan Ryan (Lab) will win with transfers from left-leaning candidates below him. I predict that Quinn will loose seat to Mullen. Given the number of candidates this count will take a long time.

So far (incld Universities and Taoiseach nominations):
FF 20
FG 9
Lab 6
SF 1
Ind 4 (Norris, Ross, Mullen, O'Toole)
Green 2
PD 2

16 seats to be decided between the Administration panel and the Industry & Commerce panel.
I predict that FF will end up with 28 seats, and with Greens and PDs the Government will win majority with 32 seats. Ths is a drop of 2 seats. Given the Local election and Dáil election results it was expected that the Governmet would win only 29 seats, but voting deal with PD-GP and unsolicited transfers from SF and independents helped FF keep seats it expected to loose.

by Watcher Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:06

Maurice you can continue and spin all you want. You are claiming that FG are more progressive as they are the opposition to the government. The argument is horseshit and has no basis in reality.

You claimed that "In the upcoming Seanad general election Sinn Féin will instruct its Councillors and TDs to vote for Fianna Fáil candidates in many of the panels (constituencies)" which is a complete and utter lie.

You then say that all SF voted for FF. No evidence is offered to back this up and is not true. I know of several councillors who did not vote for FF. All you are doing is attempting to prove some hysterical claim that you have been making for the last several weeks. You also claimed "As a result of a break down in talks between Aengus Ó Snodaigh and Joe Costello there will be no deal. This almost certianly gaurentees that SF will not have Pearse Doherty elected and it puts a 2nd Labour seat on the Labour panel in doubt." which again is more horseshit from you.

You then claimed "Sinn Féin have decided that it's Councillors and TDs (which make up about half a quota) will give first preference votes for Fianna Fáil Senators Mary White (Industry & Commerce panel), Labhras Ó Murchú (Culture & Education panel) and Camillus Glynn (Administrative panel)." Which again is horseshit.

You then claimed "The vote swap deal that was agreed by the directors of elections for both Parties, Aengus Ó Snodaigh and Joe Costello, has fallen apart due to opposition within the Labour Party. The Labour rank-and-file prefer transfers to Fine Gael". More horsehit

Then more nonsense "Due to the pact falling apart the SF votes may now go to Fianna Fáil as originally planned."

Your "politcal analysis" of SF backing up FF at every chance they get is typical hysterical nonsense that doesn't hold up to any scrutiny like everything else you say. FG are not progressive, a vote for them is not progressive, allowing FG dominate the Seanad or enter into government with them is not progressive and further more you are not progressive. You have done nothing on indymedia except for make up stories about what SF are going to do and then claimed you have "sources". You are a liar and a fraud and none of your spinning can deflect from that. You haven't a clue about SF or the Irish politcal scene and you have no idea what you are talking about when you say what SF voters want. You haven't a clue. You are about as left wing as Bertie Aherne and your knowledge of what would happen in the Seanad if FF didn't have a majority is naive in the extreme.

Pity about Mick O'Reilly though I would have loved to have seen him elected.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:13

Total valid votes: 16,917
Quota: 4,230

BACIK (Labour) 2,794
CONWAY (Ind)214
DOUGLAS (Ind)183
EFOBI (FF)201
GEURET (FF) 1,155
HUTCHINSON EDGAR (Green)330
MCDONAGH (Ind) 684
MARTIN (ASTI) 223
NORRIS (Ind) 5,240
O'CONNOR (FF) 514
ROSS (Ind) 5,379

David Norris and Shane Ross exceed quota on the first count and were elected.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:28

Look. Let's make it clear. You are doing your best to spin your way out of the fact that Sinn Féin helped out the Governemnt. Bertie got an unsolicited "dig out" from Sinn Féin.

I in no way support Fine Gael. I've made it clear. They are not more progressive. I've twice said what I would do if I had a vote. You actually believe that Fianna Fáil is more progressive. You are engaging in tweedledum tweedledee politics.

There was a break down in the SF-Labour talks. The SF party were going to issue voting instructions/guidelines to its Councillors and TDs. This was a reality. Why not go and ask your own Party HQ about it. You are denying facts. In the end the voting pact held up. there was some slippage on the Labour side, but nothing worth considering as Labour HQ were able to deal with it by asking strong anti-SF members to vote for the Labour candidate in the Agriculture panel. These are all facts.

Now that the Government will have a majority we're told by our Sf friend that my knowledge of what Seanad minority would mean is naive. So here is anotehr shift of the goal posts. Another slur, another spin. Read the Constitution and you will see that the Seanad can delay legislation except "Money Bills" (budgets, finance, etc) and some security legislation. This would not mean much on a day to day basis. It would mean however the Government could not rush through laws (which it did in 2004 over bin tax when non-collection of bin was deemed illegal and to make teen sex illegal). So I expect SF's TDs and Senator will not utter one word of criticism if/when Government rush a dodgy Bill through both Houses (they can do it with help of SF's transfers). And also in the Constitution the Seanad and 1/3 of TDs can initiate a process of refering a Bill to a referendum. If the opposition parties were able to choose an issue that was unpopular and would divide the Govt parties this would be a blow to the Govt and may even bring them down. Read it all in the constitution.

Stop your spinning and debate the real nub of the issue.

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:42

My source at the count for the Industry/Commerce panel has told my Dominic Hannigan was elected on first count topping the poll. Not sure on exact figures.

by ASTI member Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:51

David Martin is a disgrace getting 1.3%. What is he doing? He's been running there for years and is getting nowhere. His peak was i10 years ago when he got 345 votes. This is a tiny percentage of ASTI members with degrees from Trinity. It's time that ASTI dumped him. Teachers' Unions should be walking home in these elections. Bernadine O'Sullivan should not have run either. Both Martin and O'Sullivan took corporate donations and are out of touch. O'Sullivan and rest of ASTI should have got behind Paddy Healy who was a first time candidate as a teacher for the Seanad.

by Watcher Wed Jul 25, 2007 14:01

Maurice you are a liar and a fraud and nothing you say can deflect from that truth.

Again what you keep on saying is give FG support in the Seanad and this is an idiotic argument. Again you keep on lying about what SF were going to do. You haven't the slightest notion and instead all you are doing is attempting to repeat it until some other moron believes it. It is not valid, it is a lie.

Your knowledge is naive and it is not a shift in the goalposts as your whole pathetic article is devoted to the Seanad. Can you not string an argument together without resorting to lies. How many times was a referendum forced upon the government when Bruton didn't have a majority in the Seanad? How many times did the opposition parties do something like "choose an issue that was unpopular and would divide the Govt parties this would be a blow to the Govt and may even bring them down"?

by Maurice Ross Wed Jul 25, 2007 14:37

First Count
Quota 8998

O’Toole (INTO) 5412
Mullen (FF) 4661
Quinn (Ind) 3863
Ryan (Lab) 3283
Bresnihan (Ind) 3282
O’Sullivan (ASTI) 2395
Hillery (FF) 1734
Healy (TUI) 1393
Kennedy (FG) 1303
Price (Ind) 1289
MacCarthaigh (Ind) 1005
Garavan (Ind) 951
Crowley (FF) 814
Phillips (Ind) 706
Hogan (Green) 683
Lowe (Ind) 596
O’Shea Farren (FG) 563
Ó’Riordan (FF) 538
Sullivan (FG) 372
Monahan (Ind) 327
Ó’Callaghan (FF) 305
Brodbin (Ind) 220
Ó’Gogain (Fathers Rights) 174
Connolly (FF) 120

by Sean Seán Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:50

I'm not a fan of Bacik mainly because of her Party. I'd not vote for her if I were a Trinity graduate. I do however consider myself on the left and I agree with many of her positions. Many of Bacik's and Norris' views are agreed with by large sections of Irish society. I would be more concerned about Rónán Mullen getting elected as he's from a fringe group in Irish Society - militant Roman Catholicism. Mullen want women to stay at home, he opposes divorce, he wants rape and incest victims not to have abortions, he want the Roman Catholic church to continue it's rotten involvement in schools, he's against gay rights, he opposes sex outside marriage, and he opposes contraception. These are the views of a tiny minority in Irish society. If elected (not over yet!) he'll act as a spokesperson for the far-right in Irish society. But at least Mullen will have to sit beside David Norris& Ivana Bacik for the next 5 years! Unless of course he takes the FF whip and gets away from the independent benches. Which he'd probably do to get physically away from a "sodomite" or a woman!!

by Maurice Ross Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:18

The National University of Ireland count is continuing today after 2 full days of counting with no Senator yet elected.

There is a 5 horse race for 3 seats. Joe O'Toole is likely to be the only candidate to reach the quota. Mullen is in second place, with Fergal Quinn about 500 votes behind in third and Labour's Brendan Ryan in 4th place with Valerie Bresnihan only 34 votes behind Ryan. Bresnihan has called a recount.

It is highly likely that Bresnihan will not make up the gap in the recount and she will be eliminated. Her transfers will greatly decide the outcome. Tallymen at the count are predicting that her tansfers will go to O'Toole and Ryan mainly. There is also speculation that the gap between Quinn and Mullen may be made up. Some are predicting that O'Toole, Ryan and Quinn will be returned with Mullen loosing out on transfers in the final 2 counts.

Personally I predict that it will be O'Toole, Mullen and Ryan elected. Quinn's gap with Mullen may be narrowed, but 500 is a lot when there is no party lines or pacts. Ryan will outpass Quinn and knock him out of the Seanad after 14 years.

by Maurice Ross Thu Jul 26, 2007 13:05

Within the past hour the Industrial and Commercial panel has been completed. There are 9 seats. There was no change in the party representation. Again, Sinn Féin transfers and Green votes helped Fianna Fáil keep 5 out of the 9 seats.

FF 5 (Larry Butler, Marc McSharry, Denis O'Donovan, Kieran Phelan, Mary White)
FG 3 (Paudie Coffey, Paul Coghlan, Joe O'Reilly)
Lab 1 (Dominic Hannigan)

The most notably winners were former FF TD Denis O'Donovan and son of former FF minister in the 80s Marc McSharry. McSharry was the second candidate to be elected, it is believed his preformance was due to winning a large number of Green Party votes. Dominic Hannigan, a failed Dáil candidate in May, won the Labour seat former held by Derek McDowell.

Sacked Junior Minister Ivor Callely only achieved 13 votes. The former Fianna Fáil TD came into corruption allegations in recent times. Callely now joins Don Lydon as a FF member distanced by the party due to corruption allegations. Lydon and Callely are no longer in Leinster House after defeats in these elections. Former PD member Sheila Terry lost her Fine Gael seat in this election to Paudie Coffey.

by Maurice Ross Thu Jul 26, 2007 13:17

With 7 seats left here is the party tally. (NUI still to elect senators but going by predictions, Taoiseach's 11 nominees to be decided but party loyalties known)

FF 25
Green 2
PD 2
FG 12
Lab 7
SF 1
Ind 4 (Norris, Ross, Mullen, O'Toole)

Fianna Fáil only need 2 of the 7 Administrative panel seats to secure majority for the Government. I predict that those 7 seats will go FF4, Lab1, FG2.

That will give final tally as follows
Fianna Fáil 29 (DOWN 1)
Green Party 2 (UP 2)
Progressive Democrats 2 (DOWN 2)
Fine Gael 14 (DOWN 1)
Labour 7 (UP 2)
Sinn Féin 1 (UP 1)
Independents 4 (DOWN 2)

This breakdown would give Government a majority but would also give Fianna Fáil options if the Greens or PDs were to leave government during the next 5 years.

by Maurice Ross Thu Jul 26, 2007 16:13

Three seats have just been filled in the Administrative panel. Fine Gael's Nicky McFadden, Labour's Brendan Ryan and Fianna Fáil's Diarmuid Wilson. Labour Party Senator Brendan Ryan caused division within Fingal Labour circles after securing a party nominaton in Dublin North despite not being active in the party for years. Fianna Fáil are 1 vote away from taking the Seanad majority for the Government on the 10th count of this panel. FF Councillor Maria Corrigan's votes are to be distributed with these securing FF their required number of Senators to win a majority.

Further evidence of the Sinn Féin transfers to the Fianna Fáil candidates were shown when Brendan Ryan's transfers were distributed. 832 of the 1249 transfers went to Fianna Fáil candidates. This shows a degree of Labour support for Fianna Fáil but also very strong support from Sinn Féin councillors and TDs for Fianna Fáil. This factor delivered the Government a majority. Fianna Fáil are set to loose only 1 seat despite loosing seats in Dáil election and an historically low vote in the 2004 local elections.

by Maurice Ross Thu Jul 26, 2007 16:34

Fianna Fáil have won the majority for the Government. There were jubilant scenes at the count as the Government have now won a majority. The predicted FF loss of 5 seats did not materialise due to the Green Party, the PDs, Sinn Féin, and many independents voting for Fianna Fáil either No. 1 or high preference.

Mark Daly (FF) was elected on the 10th count in the Administrative panel. He will shortly be joined by fellow Fianna Fáil candidates Camillus Glynn and Tony Kett after the elimination of FF's Joe Callanan. There will be a battle between Fine Gael candidates Gerard Murphy and Paschal Donoghue for one seat after the elimination of FG's Michelle Mulhearn's 67 votes. Donoghue has the advantage of 11.64 votes over Murphy.

Administrative Panel should have no change in Party make-up. The senators will be Diarmuid Wilson (FF), Mark Daly (FF), Camilus Glynn (FF), Tony Kett (FF), Nicky McFadden (FG), Paschal O'Donoghue (FG) and Brendan Ryan (Lab).

by Maurice Ross Thu Jul 26, 2007 19:30

The result of the National University seats gave victory to Joe O'Toole, Rónán Mullen and Feargal Quinn. Sitting Senator, Brendan Ryan, lost his seat. Labour made a gain on the Labour panel and on the Trinity College panel. So despite the loss of their Seanad leader they have increased their representation to 6. Fine Gael will be disappointed with it's loss of one seat, especially as they increased their Dáil and Council representation greatly. The story of this election has to be the manner in which Fianna Fail were able to get support from Parties and independents that had stood against a FF/PD platform in the last local and Dáil elections.

The Taoiseach nominations are now the only seats to fill. It's likely that defeated FF senator Paschal Mooney will feature after loosing on the Culture and Education panel. With a comfortable majority Ahern may give one of his seats to an independent from the North in accordance with tradition over past decades. Ahern has also tended to nominate personal friends such as Chris Wall, Cyprian Brady and Dermot Fitzpatrick. The Greens will have choice of two Senators. Dan Boyle is likely to feature. Other possibilities include Niall Ó Brolcháin, Deirdre de Burca and Patricia McKenna. The PDs have appointed a committee to assist Harney with her choice. Likely contenders are Fiona O'Malley, Colm O'Gorman, Ciarán Cannon and outsider Tom Morrissey.