Worrying signs as Sinn Fein support falls ahead of Libson poll

international | anti-capitalism | news report

Friday May 16, 2008 17:05

by Jim

Fianna Fail has made gains at the expense of all parties including its coalition partners

The replacement of Bertie "Liar Liar Pants On Fire" Ahern with Brian "Biffo" Cowen has led to a boost in popular support for Fianna Fail.
Sinn Fein the only party who are opposed to the Lisbon Treaty show a worrying decrease in support.
Brian Cowen has come out fighting in the last week trying to persuade the electorate to vote in favour of the Treaty after recent polls showed poor levels of support.
Is Cowen likely to change the opinions of the electorate by transfering a boost in support into support for Lisbon.
It looks dangerously likely

"The change in leadership has provided a big electoral boost for Fianna Fáil and re-positioned the other parties, according the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi opinion poll published today. A shift in political attitudes is taking place. The departure of Bertie Ahern, the dominant personality in Irish politics for over a decade, was timely. Despite the long goodbye in the glare of the most favourable publicity, some 70 per cent of voters - 62 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters among them - believe that he was right to resign. The vast majority of voters also believe that he has further questions to answer about his personal finances.

This is a good opinion poll for the new Taoiseach Brian Cowen in the immediate wake of his election. The level of satisfaction with the Coalition Government has increased by 13 points since last January. Fianna Fáil is witnessing a surge in support - from 34 per cent to 42 per cent. The party only hit this peak in the general elections in 2007 and 2002. Mr Cowen has the highest personal standing of all the party leaders. It is interesting that this figure - 52 per cent - is the same rating which he held as tánaiste. But, it is understandable that some 37 per cent of voters have formed no opinion about his performance only a week in the Taoiseach's office. The important point is that there has been a seamless transition.

The Labour Party will also be pleased with the poll findings. Eamon Gilmore has consolidated his position since he assumed the leadership last autumn. His personal rating has increased to 40 per cent, up 4 points in as many months, placing him ahead of the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, for the first time. There is a significant rise to 15 per cent in support for the party following a credible and consistent performance on major issues, including the resignation of Mr Ahern, in recent months.

Fine Gael will be disappointed with the findings. Their leader, Enda Kenny, sees a drop of 2 points in satisfaction ratings to 39 per cent, his lowest since 2005, possibly caused by a few misjudgments in the handling of recent issues. He made a major mistake in calling for a general election on the day that Mr Ahern set his resignation date. It was as if he delivered the prepared script without taking account of the new circumstances. There is a 5 point drop in the party's support to 26 per cent.

The gains for Fianna Fáil may have come at the expense of the smaller parties, notably their Coalition partners. While the leader of the Green Party John Gormley has a 2 point increase in ratings to 44 per cent, the support for his party has dropped to 4 per cent. Did he have a closer than necessary alignment with the internal affairs of Fianna Fáil in the change in leadership - as captured by his presence on the shoulder of Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen? The Progressive Democrats have dropped in support to 1 per cent and their new leader comes in at the bottom of the pile. There is a drop in support for Sinn Féin also, the only Dáil party to oppose the Lisbon Treaty."