Opinion Poll Today, Some Questions

by Michael Laver Fri May 16, 2003 21:20

1. over 70% of 'other party' votes in the last general election went to the Socialist Party. SP got about 15,000 votes- in comparison WP and SWP received a few thousand between them (and they ran more candidates).

To be accurate the polls should be "Others- including the Socialist Party"

2. I'm not sure how they work out 'core support'. I presume it's by asking a number of supplementry questions which determin the committment of the person to their party.

by explanation Fri May 16, 2003 23:02

Core support means the percentage of people that actually say they would vote for that party. A certain percentage would answer "don't know". The pollsters then divide the "don't Knows" in the same percentage as the party percentages (ie if Labour gets 20% core vote then they are allocated 20% of the don't knows as well). This gives the adjuted support excluding the don't knows.

by basque voter. Sat May 17, 2003 11:28

if some people say they would vote for party that no longer exists? or imagine, some people would like to be voted for but they cant be because their party no longer exists, do they just go away like slip away under the margin of error?

by Palmiro Togliatti Sat May 17, 2003 11:57

The adjusted support figures for parties (the ones that add up to 100%) are not necessarily made up simply by expressing the core support figures as a percentage of those expressing a preference. Many pollsters now weight the figures on the basis of past inaccuracies in their poll figures compared to election results: for example, if they have found that their opinion polls have consistently underestimated support for Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, and overestimated support for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, they will weight the adjusted figures for each of these parties to a degree intended to adjust for these problems.

That said, I don't know whether this is the case in the MRBI poll in the Irish Times. I think it is, and if SF core support of 7% is turned into 9% adjusted support while Labour 14% becomes 22%, that would seem to indicate that this is being done.

by LP Sat May 17, 2003 23:29

How can someone support a party that does not exist?

From what I know the people are asked to fill out a questionairre with the names of the various parties already printed on it.

by Sean Mon May 19, 2003 12:52

Good question.
Although for the answer you´ll have to take a look at what´s going on in the Basque Country.
The illegalising of Political parties, Youth Wings of Parties, democratic institutions, electoral platforms and the closing down of the only Basque language newspaper.