EU REFERENDUMS - HOW TO WIN THEM

national | miscellaneous | news report Sunday July 14, 2002 21:23 by Paul Kinsella - Various paulkinsella53 at yahoo dot com 53 Lorcan Grove, Santry, Dublin 9, Eire 087-9748511

Some interesting points

Don't agree with everything in this press release - especially where they go on about the 'need' to exclude 'extremists' from the NO Campaign. What is an 'extremist' by their definition? Does this mean that the Workers Solidarity Movement and other Anarchist organisations are to be excluded from the NO to Nice Campaign because they are too 'extreme!? Does this mean that the Socialist Party and other genuine Socialist organisations are to be excluded from the NO to Nice Campaign because they are too 'extreme!?

EU REFERENDUMS - HOW TO WIN THEM

THE NATIONAL PLATFORM
24 Crawford Ave.
Dublin 9

Tel.: 8305792

Friday 12 July 2002

Dear Friends,
May we send you a copy of "EU Referendums - How to Win Them: The Unofficial Referendum Guide."

This has been produced by TEAM, The European Alliance of EU Critical Movements, which is a network and information exchange between some 50 political party and non-party organisations in 17 different European countries, inside and outside the EU. PANA(The Peace and Neutrality Alliance) and The National Platform, are the two Irish organisations affiliated to TEAM.

Not all the ideas in the Guide are appropriate to Irish circumstances, but many of them are. We think you will find useful strategic and campaigning ideas here.

This TEAM Referendum Guide is given in plain text below, following this e-mail letter, and it is given as an e-mail attachment above.

July and August are the key months for setting up the cores of local campaign groups around the country, with the aim of engaging in canvassing,leafletting and postering operations in September and October in the lead-up to the Nice Repeat referendum proper.

Every concerned democrat should seek set up such a group, in whatever organisation you are in. If you are not already in a No-side organisation, get together with your friends and neighbours NOW to set up a local No-side campaign group. If you are not in touch with a No-side campaign group already, get in touch with us and we shall do our best to put you in touch with one.

The Dail will be recalled to discuss the Nice Repeat referendum in the first week in September, and the Nice Repeat itself will probably be held on the third week of October.

The central issue in the Nice Repeat/Re-run is whether the people have the right to control the Government or whether it is the Government that controls the people.

What the Governemnt and its allies are trying to do is to overthrow a perfectly valid constitutional referendum result, with the encouragement and cooperation of the other EU Member States.

If they succeed, it will make EU referendums meaningless in future, not only in Ireland but in every other EU country that might have them. It will show that if the people do not deliver the result the Eurocrats want, then they must be made to vote again until they give the right answer.

This has never happened before in the history of the Irish State: that an Irish Government has tried to overthrow a valid referendum result. To do this the Government in effect is allying itself with foreign governments against its own people. This is a momentous moment in our history as a State. It puts a question-mark over the basis of our democracy, and poses a challenge to every democrat.

That is why every democratically minded Irish citizen, whether they voted Yes or No to the Nice Treaty last year, or did not vote at all, should come out in October to defend Irish democracy, and democracy in the EU, and to assert the principle that it is the people who control the government, not the other way around.

And everyone should start preparing now at local level to win a mighty victory for democracy in October.

Yours faithfully

Anthony Coughlan
Secretary

_______________________________________________________________

_________THE TEAM EU REFERENDUM GUIDE________

Introduction

In 2002 and 2003 several EU Member and Applicant States will be facing referendums - on the euro-currency, the Nice Treaty, EU military policy opt-outs and the various EU Accession Treaties. Even if the particular issues and the background political culture differ from country to country, EU-critical campaigners everywhere can learn from the experience of countries that have won EU-related referendums against all odds: Norway, Denmark and Ireland.

Norway rejected membership of the EC/EU on two occasions, in 1972 and 1994. Greenland, a self-ruling part of Denmark, left the EC after a referendum in 1982. Denmark said No to the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 and the euro-currency in 2000. Ireland rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001. Democratic activists who have campaigned in these countries for over 20 years have useful lessons to teach us on how to run a well-organised referendum campaign. We can of course also learn from the experience of countries that have lost EU-referendums. Winners and losers have contributed to the notes below. We hope you will find them useful, so that we all can be winners in future EU referendums.

The notes are partly based on presentations at TEAM's Annual General Meeting in Prague in March 2002, by Kjell Dahle (Norway), Lave Broch (Denmark) and Patricia McKenna (Ireland), as well as suggestions from various other people. If you have any useful referendum tip or ideas to share with us, please let us have them and we can include them in a later version of these notes.

Good luck with the campaigns!

Brussels, April 2002

Henrik Dahlsson
Secretary-General TEAM

TEAM Secretariat
The European Parliament
Rue Wiertz 2H 246
1047 Brussels
BELGIUM

E-mail: hdahlsson@europarl.eu.int
Tel: 00 32 2 284 65 67
Fax: 00 32 2 284 91 44
Website: www.teameurope.info

_____________

1. BEFORE THE CAMPAIGN

1.1 The phrasing of the question

Will the referendum be a choice between two alternatives? Yes or No? What is the official question? How can it be interpreted? The phrasing of the question affects the message that you and your opponents have to give to the voters.

1.2 Get to Know Your Opponents

To be able to launch a successful campaign you need to know your opponents' situation. Who are they? Do people trust them? What arguments do they use? Where do they get their money from? How much do they have? Compare it with what you have and go public with the information. A fair referendum cannot be held without a fair distribution of money. The same goes for radio and TV time.

1.3 Target Groups and Maximize Votes

To win a referendum you must get the votes of 50 percent of the voters plus some more. The biggest contribution you can make to this is to win the votes of the particular interest group that your organisation exists to attract - workers, women, farmers, young people, environmentalists, church people, peace activists, pensioners, the political right, the political left etc. The support of these organisations is also important to get money for the campaign.

It is essential at the same time that your organisation does nothing that would alienate voters of different backgrounds, whom other campaigning organisations on your side may be seeking to influence. You can often reach different target groups by having more than one leader or spokesperson for the campaign.

1.4 You Must Win The Middle Ground

Most people are most comfortable campaigning alongside people they agree with. But if you want to win the referendum you must appeal to lots of people whom you do not agree with and who do not agree with you! Or if you cannot appeal to them, at least try not to alienate them or put them off, and hope that other organisations on your side will succeed in winning their votes.

You may already have committed or radical opinion on your side, people who know about and feel strongly about the issue. But to win, it is essential to win the middle ground of opinion, people who do not have strong views, or who do not know the issues, or who have voted against your side in previous referendums.

The approaches and arguments needed to win middle-ground opinion are likely to be very different from those motivating the strongly committed. It is essential that a special effort is made to target the middle ground, either by the national alliance of campaigning organisations,if there is one, or by specific organisations that are geared to the middle ground, if there is no national referendum campaign. Otherwise there is no chance of winning a national referendum.

1.5 Build Alliances - Get Used to Strange Bedfellows

If you can gather many different organisations in your campaign, your strength will increase, as well as your credibility. But keep extremists at a distance, if you want to keep the people's good opinion. Keep extremists out of the mainstream alliance, but try to make a pact of non-aggression with them if there are such people involved. Then you can focus on fighting the europhiles instead of one another.

If you want to deepen your cooperation in a multiple-group alliance you may be able to agree on a common political platform. There are pros and cons to that strategy. Your voice may be stronger or louder in the debate, but you might also exclude useful supporters who cannot fully support such a platform, or who do not like some of the organisations that do support it.

If a formal alliance or umbrella group is impossible, then try to work in parallel with other organisations and interests, avoiding overlap and duplication of effort as much as possible by means of informal contact and agreements. And hope that the combination of votes won by the organisations appealing to different constituencies will combine to give an overall majority - that magical 50 percent plus.

2. DURING THE CAMPAIGN

2.1 Believe in Winning!

In sport it is usually said that the important thing is not to win, but to participate. When it comes to referendums, the opposite applies. If you do not believe in winning - who will believe it?

2.2 Use Your Best Arguments

What are your best arguments (Democracy, welfare, environment, peace, global issues, economic issues, trade, centralisation etc.)? What issues are important for the voters? Focus on the issue of the referendum and do not allow yourself to be distracted by other, controversial, debates. Think also about how you can get fast and reliable information.

2.3 React Rapidly - Never Leave an Argument Unanswered

If you do not answer a comment or statement from the europhiles straight away, quite soon it will be considered the truth - even if it is far from it. The other effect of not reacting rapidly is that the voters will not realise that you exist.

2.4 Never Mind the Europhiles - Use Your Anti-Establishment Position

Most citizens these days have a lot of scepticism about the political Establishment and mainstream politicans. Use that anti-Establishment or anti-politician sentiment to get your message through. At the same time, you should not devalue the impact of your message by using simplistic or populist slogans.

Put your points in reasonable sensible terms. It is easy to speak to the converted in a dogmatic way. Remember that you should not be speaking primarily to those who are already with you, but should be trying to get the already "converted" to convert others.

2.5 Facts Kick - Know What Your Are Talking About

You have to know your arguments well, because your are taking on Establishment people who claim to be more reliable. Know the facts as well as the sources for them. These have to be credible. A campaign cannot be won by good arguments alone, but without them you will never win. Find who are the counter-experts on the referendum issue and use them.

2.6 Knowledge Counts - But Also Humour

In the end it is not well-documented reports or command of statistics that pave the way for victory. You not only need to win people's minds with good arguments, but also their hearts with humour and a human touch. A humorous note in your campaign literature or when talking to people can be hugely effective.

2.7 Get Your Message Through to Ordinary People

The national mainstream media are not the best way to get your message through, for they are likely to be hostile anyway. We just have to accept that. One way to counter that is to be professional and imaginative enough to make the national media interested. Another way is to focus on regional and local media, whose attention is often easier to get. The most important way to counter the bias of the mainstream TV, radio and newspaper media, is to contact ordinary people where they live and work - in pubs, shopping-centres,at sports meetings, by lobbying them on their own doorsteps and in their own homes. Strength of numbers on the ground can make up for much media hostility.

2.8 Do Not Paint it All Black - if You Want to be Taken Seriously

Even if it is important to talk and write simply and clearly, the message has to be balanced. The heaven- and hell-descriptions of the EU and the EU Treaties are not convincing to most people. Most people are balanced and reasonable, and they expect the people they trust when it comes to voting to be just that. Recognise frankly that there are positive aspects to the other side's arguments, while making clear that the negatives outweigh the positives.

2.9 Make Your Own Agenda

Even if you have to react to your opponent's actions (see point 2.3 above), you should not be the one commenting on others' comments all the time. That will make your campaign look weary, defensive and without creativity. Your main focus has to be to set your own agenda and force your opponents to answer your questions. A suggestion: Put forward new questions every week to your opponents. If they do not answer, use it against them.

2.10 Have a Simple Basic Message

Concentrate on simple basic campaign messages in your leaflets, posters and press statements. But be sure that you can back them up with complex facts and argument if need be. Try to establish a campaign website which will give your latest press statements and campaign material, as well as your basic arguments and analysis. Interested members of the public may contact you through that.

2.11 Use Your Strength Wisely

To keep morale high during the campaign, you also need to use your strength wisely. Otherwise you will have no strength left for the last part of the campaign. This is especially important for the EU-critics. The Yes-side is often ahead in the polls early in the campaigns, due to massive and well-financed information efforts. But EU-critics have often a better chance to win a referendum after a long debate. So, try to start the debate early and see that you have strength left for the finishing stretch.

3. AFTER THE CAMPAIGN

3.1 Follow up - New Contacts And Networks?

You have probably made new useful contacts and networks during the campaign. Be sure to take care of them. They can be useful for the exchange of information, for building political alliances and to prepare for future referendums.

3.2 See That The Result is Followed Up

The campaign does not end on referendum polling day. Even if you have won, you cannot be sure that the No result will be respected by your government. After the Danish No to the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, treaty opt-outs were given in the following areas: Single Currency, Police Cooperation, Foreign and Security Policy and EU Citizenship. Gradually it has become clear that these opt-outs were not worth much. The second referendum on the Nice Treaty in Ireland, which will be held during the autumn of 2002, will show the same phenomenon; The country's government ignored the will of the people.