The "liberal left" has won the Spanish General & French municipal elections

by iosaf Sun Mar 09, 2008 22:16

His speech, that of a happy man began with the list of the victims of ETA in the last legislature, a lsit which started with Isaías Carrasco a member of his party shot in the head in the Basque city of Mondragon on Friday and which ended with Diego Estacio Civizapa and Carlos Alonso Palate the two migrants who died in the Madrid airport bombing which ended ETA's ceasefire.
& then he made assurances to govern with all for those who have least. Rousing socialist stuff. But the results almost counted now are quite clear - the Spanish state has seen the smaller parties of the progressive left lose their votes & seats & group status. Even in the Basque the PSOE & Zapatero's brand have become the dominant faction. One exception being CiU, the Catalan nationalist party which is to the right on economics & being Christian democrat closer to the PP. But not close enough...

His speech expresses a hope that this legislature will be one without the antagonism & wasted opposition of the last. Women, Young people. No mention of the price of the onions, milk, war in Afghanistan, housing or corruption yet.

Meanwhile the smaller parties such as the Catalan independence party seemed stunned but resigned to the obvious fact that today voters chose to vote No! to the PP by voting for the PSOE. The Spanish congress has lost a sense of plurality. The victory of the PSOE in turn is built on an expanded support base which has taken in those further to the left, those of republican sentiments as well as those to the centre.

No senior figure from the PP wanted to go on camera. They lost an election four years ago & never accepted its loss. Yet today the gap in seats is marginally less than in 2004. But despite four years of the most obstructive opposition drawing on all the stops of a conservativism and authoritarianism, which left no doubts to their roots in the Franco era of fascism & saw all their prominent "liberal" elements purged - they could not win the 2008 election. So their little statement of thanks reminded all that they will continue to fight for their values.

We are at values now.

Not until all votes are counted may the importance of "not votes" or "blank votes" (those envelopes which are empty when taken out of the ballot boxes) be guaged. But it would be foolish to make much of it. The abscence of any candidates or lists for the tradition of armed force seperatism in the Basque may have influenced one of the highest abstentions in ten years, yet those elements called for "blank votes" not abstention. Moreover the PSOE increased their vote and the right wing nationalist party of the Basque's Lehandakari (Taoiseach) have lost a seat.

In a few hours those details will be available as the counting for the Senate elections begin. The results will be available for all to peruse for as long as we have an internet & this sort of liberal democratic system here -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_general_election%2..._2008
http://www.elecciones.mir.es/

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Meanwhile over in France, Sarkozy has lost. But the counts are through. The municipal elections aren't so important. But it's nice to know that in Europe on the 9ht of March though the governments won elections (as they always do) the Fascists lost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_municipal_elections..._2008

;-)

some background to the campaign for the 2008 general election in the Spanish state -
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/85869

by iosaf Mon Mar 10, 2008 15:11

Yesterday 74% of the enfranchised citizens in Catalonia voted. It was an extraordinarily high turn out for the autonomous community which usually sees the highest abstention & always returns at least a third of its votes for republican independence. The PSOE posters had oscillated between slogans of "optimistic Catalunya!" and frankly sinister "if you don't go they'll return" which reminded me of Orwell's snowey" the pig in "Animal Farm" scolding the animals in true Molotov style "Jones will return!" . But was that enough to strip the republican Catalan independence option of more than half its representation in the Madrid congress? Likewise where did the voters of the reformed communist greens go? As I mentioned last night the right wing nationalist christian democrat formation from the CiU held its vote and representation. Catalan catholics are now the third force in Spanish politics. But even their cousins the PNV in the Basque country, the party which rules that autonomous community saw its representation drop. If we use the Westminster comparison analogy, which is useful up to a point for simplicity's sake, Zapatero's PSOE have managed a Blairite New Labour swoop. But not on the back of an emergent middle class who would otherwise have voted Conservative. The PP lost the election, yippeeee!, but they increased both their vote and seats across the peninsula from other elements, & most strikingly in the Basque from the PNV.

The Spanish constitution needs reforms. Irish readers of indymedia will no doubt immediately think of the asymetrical nature of the Spanish state which falls just too short of a federation. But this time the Congress does not reflect nationalist, republican, Catalan, Basque or Galician seperatist sentiments. Neither the PSOE who won or the PP who lost yesterday will relish changing the machinery which has brought bipartisan politics & for each seat won central funding in the next election under Spain's quirky "political party" laws. But one of the very elements which was essential when the constitution was written has been undermined. Now plurality and diversity is represented only at autonomous community or council level, & in each case those parties almost invariably of the radical or progressive left have no governing option but to enter coalition with the PSOE.

Yesterday by noon, I was aware that those of my friends and neighbours who had a right to vote had done so. I've left the anarkisti for the day, iosaf, the fascists are coming back. was the on program text message I got from a friend who had made the effort to vote first thing in the morning after working through the night in a club. 4 years ago she & I and several thousand others in the city of Barcelona and a mere total of 40,000 in the whole peninsular state had demonstrated infront of the offices of the PP demanding the truth & an end to lies on the eve of the 2004 election and the immediate aftermath of the March 11 Madrid Massacre. I was very aware yesterday that my neighbourhood, my "barri" being one of the most cosmopolitan in Europe also had an exceptionally high figure of migrant families without a vote. Bringing a DVD back to the rental place I passed three young teenagers with their football chatting about which one would win. One lad still spoke with a Cuban accent, the other was black, usually leads to assume a recent ancestry in Africa & the third 's accent carried the howya! twang of a local Catalan. At the rental place I found a handbag which had been dumped after a mugging. That's quite normal, my neighbourhood with its labyrinthine streets is very attractive to tourists who in their turn are very attractive to street criminals whose escape is facilitated by the labyrinthine streets. But in the detritus left behind every such petty crime, I found two envelopes. One for the Senate election and the other for the Congress. I had two stolen missing votes. I don't understand how that bag or the owner of that bag managed to fill out their ballot forms and place them in the envelopes but not get those envelopes across the community centre floor into the ballot box. Last night I finally opened them. One vote for the coalition of ERC, ICV and PSOE for the senate and one vote for the list of PSOE for Congress. OH well, ZP didn't miss that vote. But as much as the trap of coalition which has now destroyed the smaller parties of the left, the envelopes proved one other thing - the list factor.

In Spain one has no option to vote out an unpopular or unscrupolous politician. They may not destroy a career in the way voters of Dublin destroyed Mc Dowell's. The central party leadership decides closed lists - the citizens chose the list. The more votes won, the more individuals on the list get seats. It is an appaling system which means that internal democracy in the political parties may not develop. There may be no internal movement against the leadership, or at least if there is - those "rock the boats" will never get on the electoral lists.

Finally it was curious to see last night on the TV as ZP's fans danced in the street, that one supporter had brought a flag of the 2nd republic. The beautiful and nobel but technically along with the Franco eagle - a preconstitutional flag . I am not convinced that the PSOE in its all embracing victory of one party may serve all aspirations will be any different from Aznar in his overal majority. They now carry a huge responsibility to represent the aspirations and hopes of their junior partners in the local governments & councils, to reform the constitution & to recognise that though they got their votes to stop the return of Mr Jones & his "head & heart" authoritarian catholicism & blatant free market capitalism - the hearts behind those new votes are still Catalan, Basque, Green, Republican, Communist.

as I always write & really mean -

the Government wins elections.

by Bogwarrior Mon Mar 10, 2008 21:01

ETA really helped swing it for Zapatero by whacking one of his members 2 days previous. It made Zapatero look resolute and gave him the empathy factor.

You'd almost think it was "let through". ETA have suffered over 50 arrests in Jan/Feb alone and then shoot themselves in the foot by targetting an insignificant FORMER!! PSOE Councillor who worked in a poxy motorway toll booth.
Incidentally the PP vote increased by half a million and 5 extra seats.

by iosaf .:. ipsiphi Mon Mar 10, 2008 21:52

After examining the results of the Basque & Navarran voting & taking the time to do the soft math involved I disagree with "bogwarrior" (last comment) that the assassination of Isaías Carrasco played a major role in the re-election of Zapatero. But certainly some right wing Spanish voices thought to gurgle that the PP had lost the election because of that murder & almost seemed to hope ETA's last murder had seen one of their members as victim instead. Incidently there have been exactly 48 arrests & 4 releases not "over 50" and while I'm at it 2 expulsions of ETA prisoners for openly criticising the current leadership of ETA from that group's prisoner network, they were fomer top leaders too. For the first time in its history Bilbao athletic Football club did hold a minute's silence on Saturday in repudiation of the murder, but consideration of the Basque vote must be based on its reduction in seats (census drop in population meant one less seat in Congress) & the rotund rejection not of ETA but of Ibarretxe's moderate nationalist PNV plans for future self-determination. I could bore some to a well-honed point & remind everyone that the political articulation of Batasuna's position during hte ceasefire was an attempt to accomodate that plan. ETA lost its negotiations when it ended its ceasefire, it has since lost its political power, & its murders no longer have political import. Sadly its leadership still haven't realised that it has also abandoned its own prisoners. Who increasingly with the majority of Basque & Navarran people see the so-called "armed struggle" as an impediment to the future of Basque national aspirations. Euskadi saw participation at 64.9%
highest in Alava province at 70.3% lowest in Guipuzcoa at 58.2% PSOE won 18 seats up 4, PNV won 12 down 3 & the PP won 6 down 2. The combined votes for smaller left parties did not top 10% in any of the 4 provinces of Euskadi.

As reported in English by the Basque television platform EITB, the leadership of the moderate PNV have now offered ZP their support in an attempt to finalise the peace in process the Basque countries, which if I remember correctly I wrote many times was never to do with just ETA alone & would take more than one legislature but a lot of sincere dialogue. I believe the table is laid.:.
http://www.eitb24.com/new/en/B24_89765/politics/MARCH-9...tion/

Anyway, the Spanish media & maths confirm that Zapatero's victory yesterday was based on the record number of votes received in Catalonia & the associated collapse of the Catalan independence party & even smaller communist greens. This worked in tandem with the right wing christian democrat Catalan vote which increased the local CiU, the Catalan catholics resent PP Spanish nationalism & have always been more tolerant of difference than their other peninsular co-religious. Readers of Catalan might enjoy analysis from the Catalan independence news platform "vilaweb" which asks whither to now for ERC? http://www.vilaweb.cat/www/noticia?p_idcmp=2773945
Today I spoke to three Catalans who are pro-independence about how they voted & why. All of them were counted in the more than 300,000 who abandoned their party. 2 of them voted for CiU and one for the PSOE. There are obviously lessons to be learnt & already ERC's number 2 in the Catalan home rule parliament has resigned his position "to concentrate on rebuilding the party".

It is most curious that Catalans who have long well articulated the delay in their infrastructural improvements, the unfairness of their fiscal contribution to the central state in terms of returned investment, the glib way in which their electoral lists are imposed from Madrid, the presumptious arrogance which naturally emerges from a situation where one party controls all the levels; local, municipal, regional, autonomous & central government then decided to participate at 75% only 2% down on 2004 & give ZP his victory with the caveat of a third force of their own Catholic blend.

For neither ZP's 169 deputies in Congress or 89 in the Senate hold an absolute majority. The future will see constant pacts made with CiU.

The PP hold 153 in Congress & 101 senators, though in fairness the PSOE have a permanant coaltion agreement with a further 12 Catalan senators bringing them to 101. Yet again at the upper house level, Catalans are essential to the government of the Spanish state.

Other fallout effects have been felt in the party of the reformed communists, whose secretary general Gaspar Llamazares has upon losing his block's group status the collapse of its vote at what he termed the tsunami of bipartisanism announced he will not seek relection to the party's leadership. The way is open thus at the suggestion of their Catalan membership to recuperate a "green" rather than "red" image.

The final words I really will have to say on all this (other than correcting people who make mistakes or mislead the readership) is that bipartisan politics though typical of the anglo-saxon model do not make for healthy emergence of democratic values & structures at all levels of the socioeconomic strucure which is the modern state. We may trick ourselves into thinking (as many Catalan commentators today appear to think) that the modern voter is so shrewd & sophisticated that they know the power of strategic voting & thus may abandon their true political hues for a useful "anti-vote". But it is not so pit-pat. Bipartisan politics reduced the whole election to exactly the point I attempted to make with the illustration in my article on the election campaign.

c/f : http://www.indymedia.ie/article/85869#comment222038

A simple battle between the liberal & fascist. The PP suceeded in seeing the independence parties destroyed, their own vote increased, their own seats increased, & situation where a party which share many of their values if not Spanish nationalism will be crucial to future thorny issues of refom. At end their loss has been mdae palatable by ample sweeties.

.... As I had warned twice in the campaign coverage, whichever side wins - you lose.

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France.

The French prime minster has had to propose a future role in the governance of that state to the leader of the centre Bayrou as reaction to the local elections which saw Sarkozy's party beaten into third place behind Socialists and Centrists in many key cities of France.
http://www.liberation.fr/actualite/politiques/municipal...R.php

The results are still not counted which when one thinks of quickly the Spanish general ones were, (even dare I joke down to the stolen handbag votes)[read the above comments] one might wonder are they simply fixing them.....

But some results are in. The right has held Nice a particular stronghold, but you'll be glad to know, not the right of Sarkozy or even LePen. Meanwhile results in Rennes & Paris might reflect the swing to Socialists (47%) which has it appears put a smile on even the face of Segolene Royale. Quite the nicest prettiest woman France never had has a president or first lady.

results will update here -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_municipal_elections...sults

by John Meehan Tue Mar 11, 2008 19:05

Good results for the Ligue Communiste Révolutionnaire :

http://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?page=print_a...=1445

by iosaf Wed Mar 12, 2008 15:18

Now as ye ought know (coz I told ye) the exit polls gave the Socialists 47% & put the UMP party of Sarkozy in third place. But where are the results? Ye may seek them on wiki. Both wiki English & French, neither the twain will assist. You may recherchez the various portals of the French government, not a screed of data will you get.

I kid you not................ It appears that someone, somewhere, sometime took the awesome decision to "avoid the cacaphony of public interest" & not release the results till March 16th. Sure, we will have forgotten all about it by the eve of Sant Patrice, ma cherie .

Meanwhile here's an interview for people who understand or study French between the newspaper "Liberation" & the leader of the centre party Bayrou on whither he wish go now, that apparantly we allo believe he came second in an election to councils, which also elects 95% of the electors of the Senate (for those Senators who aren'telected some other way[can't tell you about it] [it's a secret]) http://www.libelabo.fr/2008/03/12/ou-va-francois-bayrou/

english
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_municipal_elections...sults
french
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lection_municipale_f...7aise

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The last party of the "seperatist left" in the Basque country has reacted badly to the news that it has lost its control of councils in that land after the other parties of the left with whom it had coalition agreements decided not to continue in partnership. The reason was not the collapse of votes at General level for the radical left, but rather the absence of condemnation for the assassination of Isaías Carrasco last Friday. The first city council to lose its ANV mayor will be Mondragon where of course Isaias Carrasco was shot in the nape of the neck for the ostensible reason of furthering the agenda of Basque independence ............ obviously when you wear the white hood of ETA for so long, oxygen doesn't get to the brain & you go really thick as well as really sick.

Postal votes (those of Spanish citizens abroad) altered the results of the final 2% of votes counted & took one deputy from the PP in favour of the Catalan catholic centre right CiU. The same seat had orginally been attributed to the eco-communist IU-ICV.-EUiA block. Postal votes are cool. Irish people don't get them, even though we trust our oversea diasporia communities to drum up trade for Ryanair, paint things green for Paddies day, welcome our ministers with smoked salmon
- we don't allow them vote.