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Election fever in Turkey
 international |
anti-war / imperialism |
news report
 Saturday July 21, 2007 20:04 by MichaelY - iawm
All bets on PM Erdogan getting an overall majority
For the last few weeks Turkey has become a poor man’s Hollywood, with much more intricate developments than the ‘Sopranos’, and with a whole load of pre-election and post-election political scenarios fighting for prominence.
.
 Election Rally of the AK Party The key question is whether PM Erdogan will get enough support without having to rely on other political forces and whether the personal support that he enjoys will translate to a parliamentary majority for his party.
In the elections due to take place tomorrow, Sunday July 22nd, 42.533.041 voters will cast their preferences in 158.700 polling stations spread in 85 electoral constituencies. There are 7.395 candidates standing for election,with 726 independents with the remaining belonging to 14 political parties. Polling stations will open at 7 in the morning and will close at either 4 or 5 in the afternoon, depending on their geographical area. Turkish law bans any publication of any exit polls or any discussion of the results until 21.00 hours
The latest polls show Erdogan’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP – the acronym od which in Turkish translates as the ‘White Party') enjoying a substantial lead of 40-45%. It is followed by the Republican Popular Party with 19-22% while the extreme right wing Party of the Nationalist Movement enjoys the support of 9-12% of the lectorate. All polls indicate that it is only these three parties that will go over the threshold of 10% support necessary in order to be represented in Parliament. The members of the pro-Kurdish Party of Democratic Turkey will be participating in the election as independents.
The various scenarios feed off the facts mentioned above:
The first scenario would be for Erdogan to get an absolute majority which will elect over 367 (out of 550) members for his Party. If this scenario materializes, Erdogan will have absolutely no problem to have Gul, his Minister of Foreign Affairs, elected as President of the Republic and tampering with the Constitution in the process if necessary.
A second scenario would be the Justice and Development Party acquiring a relative majority of up to 276 members, at which point it would need the support of other political forces.
A third scenario would be the defeat of Erdogan by an alliance of the two other parties – this is however very unlikely as the independent Kurdish members, a good number of whom will be elected, will not co-operate with the extreme right. In fact, it is quite likely that the existence of the Kurdish independents may turn out to play a very crucial role if not in the formation of a government, but in many important parliamentary decisions requiring increased majorities.
The results of tomorrow’s elections will determine a number of key developments. First and foremost would be the question of the election of a new President of the Republic. The new Parliament which will convene about a week after the publication of the official electoral results will have to immediately elect its own Speaker and governing structure. Once this process is complete, the incumbent and outgoing President of the Republic will require from the majority party to form a government. It follows that this process will be somewhat straightforward if one of the parties has an overall majority; the question of possible alliances, on the other hand, will complicate this process considerably.
And immediately afterwards, the Parliament will have to confront the very thorny issue of the election of the new President of the Republic.
Presidential Elections
If Erdogan’s Party acquires an overall majority, the election of the new President would be a straight forward affair. The Justice and Development Party has proposed the current Minister of Foreign Affairs Gul as its candidate. However, if Erdogan’s Party does not acquire the overall majority, there arises the possibility that one of the other parties could block the election by simply abstaining from Parliament - as the Constitution requires that a minimum of 367 members of Parliament are present and vote for such an election. If Parliament cannot elect a President in four consecutive sittings, then it is dissolved and new parliamentary elections are held.
In the midst of all this, there is a Constitutional Referendum set for October 21st.There is no question that the political thermometer in Turkey will climb high over the next few weeks as a result of all these developments, particularly at a time that the country is facing a number of crucial and important crises.
A number of outside forces that are playing major roles in these developments, namely the USA, the European Union, Israel, Greece, Cyprus and the Arab world will be watching developments in Turkey with extreme interest and caution. Most of these forces would, in theory, prefer an Erdogan victory. However, under the Erdogan premiership, the EU/Turkey negotiations and the whole issue of Turkey’s involvement in the occupation of Cyprus have not moved significantly forward since 2004. Furthermore, Turkey’s continuing involvement in a guerrilla war against the Kurds and its recent incursions in and bombardment of northern Iraq have made the situation even more volatile.
To follow with extreme caution. Watch this space
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Jump To Comment: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Early indications suggest Kurdish independents could win 25 seats although realistically 18-20 is a more likely figure.
The Islamists look like they will get more than half the seats but will probably still need the support of other parties to elect the president
Theres been allegations of malpractice in Kurdish areas. Last minute changes of location of polling stations. Changes of the rules to stop nominally independent (i.e. Kurdish) candidates putting logos on ballot papers (necessary because of high illiteracy rates in South East Turkey/North Kurdiastan. Change of the sequence that candidates on the ballot paper -(In areas where illiteracy levels were high some parties/groups used to tell their supporters to vote for -say the fifth candidate on the ballot paper).
Among leftwing Kurds feelings are mixed about the prospect of an Islamist majority some are happy that Turkish nationalists have been unseated and Kurds will have increaced (albeit still insufficent) representation in parliament. Others (particularly Alevis, Zoroastrians and other religious minorities) are uneasy about the prospect of Turkish society becoming more Islamiscised.
the map
http://www.bbc.co.uk/turkish/indepth/story/2007/07/0707...shtml
the Turkish language special on the Election in the Turkish State where as you know the Turkish Army called an election & the Government won. Coz the government wins elections. Of course not people in Ireland read Turkish but you can look at the photos & try clicking on things and get them to give you figures & thus feel informed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/turkish/indepth/cluster/2007/07/07...shtml
There was very low turn-out in the ethnic Georgian and Armenian sectors of the Turkish state. There was average turn-out in the southern provinces bordering Syria which is where poor people from poor countries even those without states travel around to find work without much hope. They voted for Muhummad (PBUH). Coz that's generally what happens to poor people : if they don't get work they think inordinately about going to heaven.
here's the wikipedia page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election%2..._2007
Now I suppose there'll be thanks for your contribution (as if we did anything) and Michael will start on with his gavel & responding to points.
Too early in the week for the 'gavel' format.
Some clear results and facts emerging:
The ruling Justice and Development Party, under the leadership of PM Tayip Erdogan, got very close to 47% of the vote and elected 341 TDs - falling short of the 367 needed for overall majority - see first scenario above.
The two other major parties, the CHP (Republican Popular Party ) and the MHP (Party of the Nationalist Movement) elected 112 and 71 TDs respectively.
The pro-Kurdish Party of Democratic Turkey, whose members decided to put themselves forward as 'independents', elected a very respectable 27 TDs
Finally out of the 550 elected members of Parliament 46, just over 8%, will be women.
Are Turkish Politicians called 'TD's'
Is the world really that small ?
YOU can call them MPs, members of Parliament, parliamentarians or even 'seats'. To use the relevant Turkish word (Iosaf?) would have raised further questions.
As for the world getting smaller, and more repressive, by the day, does anyone doubt it?
It was a serious question. Not a joke.
Maybe just 'junta'. or 'Globalised Oligarchy'
I had no doubt it was a serious question and that's why I responded with all the seriousness it deserved.
As you very well know, Turkey suffered, and the Turkish people had to put up with, while the revolutionary Left got massacred by, a number of so-called 'progressive' and 'secular' pro-western juntas over the last 40 years, and as the Turkish Army is the main player in the politics of the country , I'd go with the latter 'Globalised Oligarchy' for the moment. It's a good name - certainly more flamboyant than that poor TDs of mine!!
Watch this space.
From the heights of Mount Parnassus, in the lush green vicinity of the Cultural Center of Delphi, Turkey felt and actually was very far away. It was my third annual trip to take part in institutionalised International Conference organized by European Cultural Centre of Delphi, an annual cultural, intellectual and theatrical event which takes place roughly this time of the year.
....
A few days before general elections in Turkey, it was not surprising that Turkey-although represented only by the journalist Leyla Umar – became the hot topic of the discussion in panels that were predominately populated by women. The women at the Delphi Conference were surprised to hear that in these general elections where around half of the 42,533,041 registered voters were women, only a tenth of the total of the main parties' candidates were females. In spite of loud promises by Turkish politicians at the beginning to the electoral campaign, that these was going to be the elections of the Turkish women, only 63 women were put forward by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as their candidates which made up for the 11 per cent of the total. A similar number was put forward by the opposition party Republican People's Party (CHP). And even those were put at the bottom of the electoral list of candidates, a convenient position not to be elected.
...
Gender parity in the representation of women in the Turkish National Assembly is still a remote target which no male political leader seems eager to reach. Yes, the last chairperson of the Turkish Constitutional Court was a woman, the present chairperson of the powerful association of Businessmen and Industrialists (TUSIAD) is a woman, a large proportion of middle management in the banking sector, academia, media, etc., are women, but Turkey remains a country among the ones with the worst representation in the Turkish Parliament or in positions of political authority.
...
“Where is Tansu Çiller?”. The question came from Suzanne Patrick, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense in the U.S. government between 2001 and 2005. In her keynote speech on “Mythology and Reality of Women and Professional leadership in the 21st Century”, she had explained to us how loyalty to principles is more a woman's characteristic than that of a man and brought the examples of Hillary Clinton and Condy Rice.
" Tansu Çiller is not running for these elections" I replied.
“Why is that?”, she asked me.
“I think she chose to withdraw from politics,” I said.
Ms. Patrick paused for a moment, and then turned to me:
“It's Erdoğan, right?”
“Yes, right, it is Erdoğan now,” I replied.
For the full article and more interesting commentary please go to:
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=...79013
for those of you inept at all things such as web-surfing, data-verification or sourcing political opinions or even jibes in fact the word you're looking for is Milletvekilleri (you're welcome MichaelY I see you're on the gavel again)
Might I just point out by the way that up the page someone has made the error of equation linking all Milletvekilleri elected on the Bağımsız ticket (or independent as Ali Agca a good speaker of english would put it) as being good independents or pro-Kurdish. In the wee hours of last night when most European newspapers went to press the figure stood at 23. I'm willing to accept 24 now. but like I tell you it's 23. If you don't believe me go back the editor of the BBC in Europe's blog & pay attention to his illustration -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/200....html
Well done Mark! just to think you cut short your hols in Dorset to cover this bullshite election. Your Gavel Michael ;-)
& this is the website of the Turkish State's parliament
http://www.tbmm.gov.tr/
which is good news. Peace talks are great because they mostly happen in secret & so you don't have to pay much attention to what the newspapers say for anything from a few months to eight years. Sure yerman the lehandakari of the Basque country said yesterday given four years there would be peace in his neck of the woods (which you're not hearing about these days are you? feels great no doubt). But then again the Navarrans never got a government agreed and have to go back and vote again till they get it right. Nothing to do with Kurds though. But sure if you're invading Iran you'd want to go through Kurdistan. Now without getting too "expert like" - the first thing we'll have to do is get acceptance of the "turkish state" idea and allow some people who don't believe in Ataturk's turkey to call it that whilst other people who do can call it turkey. This won't be easy as it sounds - coz the Ataturk people and the army really like the old "turkey" label & would take it as a great insult to start dividing their "nation-state" into regions or provinces coz for some reason they think that would please the Greeks and you know they've an awful chip on their shoulder when it comes to the Greeks & especially Cyprus - which is another day's work alltogether & so we won't go into it. Suffice to say Greeks aren't loved by everyone and you'll find as many Navarrans who won't touch a mousaka as you'll get Kurds on the phone-in with rumours about the bad dental hygiene. Whereas one can never underestimate the quiet and silent majority who couldn't tell a Greek from a Macedonian but would unreservedly love them all - all the same - as long they've got better jobs than being in the army.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/turkey/story/0,,2133351,00.html